Germany - Spain, Quick preview

Unless the German coach, Joachim Löw, comes up with a big surprise in the last minute, Germany should use the very same strategy played against Argentina.

Löw will base the German game in a very strong pressing in the midfield, looking for steal and run opportunities. For this to be effective Germany tries to have numerical superiority in the midfield, playing a defensive 4-5-1. When the opponent has the ball and is starting the play, Joachim Löw places Ozil as the most advanced German player, and asks the much stronger and aggressive Klose to join the pack of German wolves in the midfield. As soon as they get the ball back and the counterattack play has started, Ozil runs to a wing and Klose takes his place in the middle of the German attack.

When the Germans steal the ball, they pass it quick to Ozil, who typically bounces it back in just one touch to some of his team mates running fast towards him. The guy who receives the ball from Ozil is expected to pass it in one touch forward to some free space where another German is already approaching... in three or four one-touch passes they mount a counter attack and finish it. Lightening fast, and very effective.

Very few national teams in the world have the proper antidote against the German strong midfield defense and counterattacks. Luckily, Spain is one of them. The right antidote is not, as one might think, playing with more and faster defenders, or simply not to open up too much, not to play too offensive. The right antidote is to never lose the ball in a compromised position, either in the defense or in the midfield, and if you have to loose the ball when attacking, do it so by shooting, that is, by finishing the play. In this way, Germany is forced to start all its plays from the get go, from the German goalie. In other words, if Germany cannot steal the ball, it cannot counter attack.

If you have been followig this blog, by now you must know by heart what I hold that Spain should do in order not to have the ball stolen by the Germans. Spain should play five midfielders, indeed. This would equalize numerically the Germans in the midfield, and then Spanish technical superiority would have a chance to prevail.

Germany does not consistenly overwhelm its opponent or keep its concentration at its fullest for the entire game. On the contrary, this German team goes through emotional ups-and-downs during every game. Against Argentina, the first 15 minutes were a German hurrican, and then the German wind calmed down for the rest of the first half. The result in the middle of the game was just 1-0 for Germany. In the second half, Germany had again some magic 6 minutes full of adrenaline when it scored two more goals and killed the game. Now, defense-wise, the Germans do keep a fairly constant fight for every ball every minute of the game.

If Spain deploys its game of passing and control, it would minimize the number, durantion and stregth of those gale-force German gusts. If Spain is once again outnumbered in the midfield, the risk that Germany will steal a few balls pretty quickly and end up scoring first is really high.

It is all in the hands of Del Bosque. A line-up with five midfielders would make all the difference. If Fabregas was one of them instead of Alonso, it would be even better. We have not seen such a line-up in this World Cup. Will Del Bosque underplay this team again? Hopefully not. Spain odds of beating Germany would significantly increase by playing the passing game at its fullest. And if Spain ends up having to go home, beat by this great and young Germany, it should at least do it with some style.